Swissblock said Bitcoin entered a high-risk zone as spot ETF outflows extended beyond two consecutive weeks.
Crypto analytics platform Swissblock said on Tuesday that its Bitcoin risk index has reached a score of 33 out of 100, placing Bitcoin (BTC) in what the firm classifies as high-risk territory. The reading reflects a structural shift in selling pressure that Swissblock said is being driven primarily by continued institutional distribution through US spot exchange-traded funds. The index is a proprietary tool designed to measure the relative balance between buying and selling pressure across the BTC market.
After a period of strong accumulation in March and April, May has reversed that trend. Swissblock said the risk index is moving into elevated territory while ETF flows simultaneously deteriorate, adding that spot Bitcoin ETF demand is no longer absorbing selling pressure effectively. Without strong ETF support, the firm said the risk index may continue to rise.
On-chain analytics provider Glassnode reported on Monday that US BTC ETFs have recorded net outflows on nearly every trading day since May 7, describing the pattern as a persistent institutional sell signal spanning more than two weeks. "This steady drip of outflow continues to add to the supply side without a visible demand offset," Glassnode said. The observation aligns with Swissblock's reading that the market has structurally flipped from accumulation to distribution this month.
Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, told Cointelegraph on Tuesday that the broader crypto market remains in a holding pattern. He said spot ETF flows have posted more than $2 billion in outflows over the past two weeks, adding that institutional risk appetite remains sensitive at the margin. Ko said the pace of outflows, rather than any single day's movement, is what defines the current environment.
BTC fell roughly 1% on Tuesday morning, dropping from above $77,000 to just below $76,500, following reports of renewed tensions in the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
Ko said the very short-term market reaction to the geopolitical development may still lean toward risk-on positioning, as investors appear to be looking past the immediate headlines and focusing on the possibility of a peace agreement taking shape. Swissblock's risk index tracks these kinds of macro-driven shifts in sentiment alongside the technical flow data, giving the firm a combined view of where institutional pressure is concentrated at any point in the cycle.
Every time the risk index signals that selling pressure is structurally overwhelming demand, institutional distribution is the mechanism underneath, Swissblock said. The current reading of 33, combined with over two weeks of near-daily ETF outflows, is the clearest expression of that dynamic since the accumulation period that defined the first quarter of 2026.
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