Bitcoin and Ethereum climbed as prediction market odds for a geopolitical peace deal rose sharply.
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.6% over 24 hours to $77,500 on May 25 as prediction market odds for a near-term resolution to ongoing geopolitical tensions rose to their highest level this month. Ethereum (ETH) rose 1.4%, and the CoinDesk 20 index added 1.56%.
Traders on Polymarket pushed the probability of a permanent agreement this month to 37%, up from roughly 14% on May 23. Odds for a deal by early June reached 46%, and by end of July climbed to 72%. The market has accumulated approximately $178 million in trading volume.
Negotiators arrived in Doha on May 25 for a new round of talks, according to CNN. A diplomat briefed on the visit said the agenda focuses on access to a key global shipping route and discussions around highly enriched uranium. Pakistan and Qatar are serving as mediators.
The shipping route in question has been largely blocked since late February 2026, though traffic has partially resumed in recent days. Crude oil fell 5.4% to $91.30 per barrel on May 25. Gold rose 1.35% to $4,570 per ounce, and the US Dollar Index fell roughly 0.3%.
Analysts Watch $75K-$76K BTC Support
US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on May 24, describing the framework as "subject to finalization." On May 25, he wrote: "It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all, Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before."
The opposing side's foreign ministry described the current phase as a memorandum of understanding, with broader negotiations expected to follow over a 30- to 60-day period, per CNBC.
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said in an X post that a confirmed deal could push BTC above $80,000. He identified the $75,000 to $76,000 range as critical support, adding that a break below it could open a path toward $74,000 and $71,400.
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