Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still points to a potential market bottom in October 2026.
Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse, says Bitcoin (BTC) topped within one week of its historically expected peak, dismissing analyst claims that the four-year cycle has broken down. His remarks came in a video published this week, where he laid out cycle timing data and a base case for where the current downturn ends.
The two previous BTC cycles topped on day 1,059 and day 1,168 from their respective prior lows. The current cycle topped on day 1,162, placing it squarely within the historical range. Cowen said that precision undercuts the argument that structural changes such as spot ETF demand, corporate treasury buying, or a Bitcoin reserve narrative have altered the cycle's behavior.
"Bitcoin topped within one week of when it historically tops, despite the narratives for calling the four-year cycle dead," Cowen said. He added that every prior cycle produced similar arguments before the bear market arrived regardless.
BTC is currently trading near $75,650, down roughly 40% from its Oct. 6 record of $126,080. Cowen described the current market recovery as a counter-trend rally, noting that the 16-week run falls within the 15 to 25 week range seen in prior midterm-year recoveries. He characterized it as weaker than the 46% bounce recorded off the 2022 cycle low.
Critics of the four-year framework have argued that BTC topped on apathy rather than the euphoric blow-off tops seen in prior cycles, which they say breaks the historical pattern. Cowen responded by pointing to S&P 500 data spanning 1962 to 1982, a period in which the index produced bear markets even after topping on apathy rather than euphoria.
"Topping on apathy doesn't mean you don't have a bear market, because you can see how in the past the stock market topped on apathy arguably and it still had a bear market," Cowen said. He framed the current narrative around ETFs and institutional demand as equivalent to the justifications market participants offered in prior cycles before declines materialized.
Cowen's base case for the Bitcoin cycle low is October 2026, consistent with the midterm year bottoming pattern seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022. He acknowledged the call could be wrong but said the burden of proof rests with those arguing for a different outcome. Even in a softer scenario, he expects BTC to revisit $60,000 at some point later this year before any durable recovery takes hold.
"To pretend like it's different this time because of some narrative on Wall Street would be the same mistake that people fell for last cycle and the cycle before that," Cowen said.
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